CUBANS USED to look back at what Fidel Castro called the “special period” after the end of the Soviet Union and its largesse and think that was as bad as things could get. They were too optimistic. Today officials talk of a “war economy”. The consensus on the street in Havana, the capital, is that shortages are worse than in the early 1990s.

Cuba produces little in sufficient quantity: not sugar, which it once supplied to the world; not eggs, which it recently imported from Colombia; not milk powder, which it gets from the UN; not power, as worsening blackouts reveal. The government lacks foreign currency for imports. Inflation is rampant.

The economic crisis is accelerating two recent trends. First, the communist government is losing control of the country— which is not to say the regime is about to fall. “All of us are here to save the revolution and save socialism,” Cuba’s president, Miguel Diaz-Canel, said this month.

Second, in search of succour the government is moving even closer to China and Russia. These growing economic and security ties come at a time when American officials are worried by those countries’ growing influence in Latin America. Cuban officials like to blame American sanctions for the island’s plight.

Joe Biden’s administration has loosened this, but left almost all Mr Trump’s other Cuba measures in place. Adding to the difficulties, Venezuela’s collapse in 2014 cut shipments of subsidised fuel to the island, and the pandemic shut off the flow of tourists and their vital foreign exchange.

“The basic stuff is missing and when it comes it is dodgy: eggs without yolks that are yellow,” says one woman who asked not to be named. Thanks to the nascent private sector, everything from Lindt chocolate to Philadelphia cheese is available, but at prices far beyond the reach of the vast majority.

Cubans are increasingly restless. Big protests in 2021 were met with stiff prison sentences for over 700 people. Subsequent ones have been smaller and have tended not to call for the regime’s overthrow.

Fidel Castro died in 2016 and his younger brother Raúl is 93 and in poor health. The Communist Party’s collective leadership veers between reform and reaction. In 2021 the government allowed private businesses to expand and employ up to 100 people in a limited range of activities.

Tourism could help, but Cuba faces fierce competition from the likes of the Dominican Republic and Cancún in Mexico, says Omar Everleny, an economist. Tourist arrivals have picked up recently, but remain far lower than the 4m in 2019.

There is talk of Russian investment in sugar production and the pharmaceutical industry. Security ties are growing, too. Last month, Cuba received a visit by Russian ships in Havana for the first time since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The Biden administration has played down concerns over these developments. Cuba’s ties with Russia tend to wax and wane. American officials are more worried about Chinese influence in their backyard. And neither country is offering much.

The United States could do more to offer an alternative to those ties. American officials say they want to. In May the administration changed its rules to allow Cuban businesses access to American digital financial services, including bank accounts. But the underlying problem has long been the Cuban government’s mistrust of the private sector.

That reflects the unease of some Cubans who see unprecedented wealth in their country, but in a few hands. At night, while many loll idly on the Malecón, Havana’s coastal promenade, others park their Teslas in front of clubs and bars.

Many Cubans have long dreamed of the regime’s collapse. But that is unlikely, and would bring other problems. The opposition lacks structure, a programme or people, inside or outside, says Carlos Alzugaray, a former Cuban diplomat. “The best chance of change is coming from the current government.” But it is not happening.