Emerging markets rely on coal-dependent heavy industry

The climate challenge is becoming more complicated as economies pull in different directions. While North America and Europe are racing to decarbonize, emerging markets in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East still rely heavily on factories that make steel, cement and chemicals. Those industries consume enormous amounts of coal and natural gas and have long lifespans, so they are unlikely to change quickly. A Reuters analysis notes that roughly three‑quarters of global steel and chemical production is concentrated in emerging countries, and about 85% of cement capacity is outside North America and Europe. That industrial footprint creates jobs and supports upstream supply chains from mining to shipping, so leaders are reluctant to shut it down or switch to more expensive fuels.

Two-track transition may widen global divide

Many richer countries see their future in data centers, artificial intelligence and renewable energy. Tech giants are building huge server farms that draw electricity around the clock and have sparked debates about how to meet their demand with wind and solar power. Governments are offering subsidies for electric vehicles and green hydrogen and are closing coal plants to reach net‑zero emissions by mid‑century. Those policies are beginning to cut demand for fossil fuels in Europe and the United States and have made renewable power competitive with gas in many markets. The contrast with emerging economies is stark: in Indonesia, India, China and parts of Africa, new coal‑fired plants are still being commissioned because they offer the cheapest way to keep factories running and households lit. The International Energy Agency projects that coal use in Asia will remain high through the 2030s. Innovations such as carbon capture and storage or hydrogen‑based steelmaking exist but remain expensive and unproven at scale. Without coordinated policies, energy experts warn that the world could face a two‑track transition in which wealthy regions cut emissions while poorer countries remain locked into carbon‑intensive growth. If emerging markets continue to expand heavy industry without cutting emissions, global temperatures could exceed Paris Agreement limits; if they decarbonize too fast without support, economic stability could falter. Policymakers must now design a transition that respects development needs while accelerating clean technology deployment.