Standoff over integration and control

Syrian forces loyal to the Islamist‑led government of Ahmed al‑Sharaa and the Kurdish‑dominated Syrian Democratic Forces are dug in along tense front lines across northern Syria as a ceasefire deadline approaches. After seizing swathes of territory once held by the U.S.‑backed SDF, including oil fields, hydroelectric dams and prisons that house thousands of Islamic State militants, government troops have demanded that Kurdish fighters integrate into the national army or face renewed fighting. Tanks, artillery and armoured vehicles have been moved towards Kurdish-held cities, and militia units on both sides are reinforcing positions and digging trenches. Civilian officials within the autonomous Kurdish administration say they will not surrender their local institutions, which run schools, courts and hospitals, to a central government they fear could impose Islamist rule and undermine minority rights. The standoff exposes deep contradictions in a country fractured by more than a decade of war: the SDF grew out of Kurdish militias that fought alongside the U.S. to oust Islamic State, and its multi‑ethnic coalition now governs about a quarter of Syria under the banner of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. But Sharaa, who toppled Bashar al‑Assad in 2024 and leads a coalition of Islamist and nationalist factions, is determined to reassert Damascus’s control over all territory and resources.

Diplomacy seeks to avert bloodshed

Across the fertile plains of Raqqa, Hasaka and Deir al‑Zor, farmers and traders fear that their livelihoods will once again be swept away if troops clash. The government offensive in early January drove deep into rich farmland and energy installations, giving Damascus control of revenue streams needed to rebuild a shattered economy. Activists note that communities which suffered under Islamic State and later under random shelling by pro‑Assad forces now live under constant drone surveillance and roadblocks set up by both sides. Many families have fled to crowded camps near the Iraqi border, joining hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people dependent on humanitarian aid. Within the SDF‑run cities, banners call for “self‑administration or no peace,” while in Damascus state media rails against what it calls separatism.

Behind the scenes, diplomats from the United States and France are shuttling between Damascus, Ankara and the Kurdish stronghold of Qamishli in an attempt to broker a longer‑term settlement. Western envoys warn that a return to full‑scale combat would risk massacres of Kurdish civilians and prison breaks by Islamic State detainees. Russia and Iran, long‑time backers of the Syrian state, officially support reintegration but are wary of a confrontation that could draw in Turkey or disrupt plans to export Syrian oil. U.S. commanders have begun relocating hundreds of detained Islamic State prisoners to more secure facilities in Iraq, citing fears that any government assault could create a new wave of extremist violence. Washington and Paris are urging Sharaa to extend the truce and to recognise Kurdish self‑government within a federal system, while pressing the SDF to accept some integration with the national army. Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan says the prisoner transfers could justify pushing back the deadline, giving negotiators a few more days to avoid bloodshed. Ordinary Syrians, weary after years of war and economic collapse, watch anxiously as their fate once again hangs in the balance, hoping that political compromise will spare them another round of suffering.