What Is at Risk

Scientists are warning that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—the vast ocean system that carries warm tropical waters north and pushes cooler, saltier waters south—is weakening and could cross a tipping point within decades. New climate simulations indicate that a collapse is no longer a remote possibility. Even with moderate emissions, the likelihood is rising, and if the threshold is breached, a full shutdown could occur within 50 to 100 years.

 Why It Matters

The AMOC regulates weather patterns across the Atlantic, shaping rainfall, storm intensity, and seasonal climate. A weakening or collapse would threaten food security for millions by shifting tropical rain belts, altering agricultural zones in South America, Africa, and Asia. Europe could face harsher winters and hotter, drier summers, amplifying existing climate stresses. North Atlantic sea levels could rise by as much as half a meter beyond current projections, putting coastal cities at greater risk. Researchers stress that the system is already at its weakest point in more than 1,600 years, and many existing models may be underestimating the danger because they cannot fully capture the accelerating meltwater flow from Greenland’s ice sheet.

 What Can Be Done

Experts highlight the need for rapid reductions in fossil-fuel emissions to limit warming and the influx of freshwater that destabilizes ocean circulation. Even without a total collapse this century, a slowdown of 20 to 50 percent could still upend storm systems, devastate fisheries, and complicate infrastructure planning. Policymakers are being urged to combine emissions cuts with stronger monitoring of ocean systems, investment in resilient infrastructure, and forward-looking contingency plans for agriculture and coastal populations.

 Bottom Line

An AMOC collapse is not certain, but scientists stress that the risk window is opening and should not be ignored. (The Guardian)