Energy meets geopolitics
Oil prices inched higher on Monday after the United States and China outlined what officials called a “framework” to cool their tariff fight. Brent crude moved above 66 dollars a barrel, and U.S. benchmark crude pushed past 61 dollars, according to market figures shared with Reuters. The White House said the understanding would pause new blanket U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods and delay Chinese threats to squeeze exports of rare earth minerals. Traders read that as a sign global manufacturing and shipping could steady rather than slow. A calmer trade outlook usually means steadier fuel demand.
But the rebound is not just about tariffs. Washington and its European partners have tightened sanctions on Russian oil firms, including Rosneft and Lukoil. The goal is to squeeze cash going to Moscow and force the Kremlin to pay a higher cost for the war in Ukraine. Those moves lifted crude last week and signaled that Western governments are prepared to use energy markets as leverage in parallel with battlefield pressure.

Higher oil, higher pressure
Analysts warned that the story is not clean. Crude is still cheap by the standards of recent years, and the market is balancing two opposite forces. On one side, sanctions on Russia and the Gaza ceasefire effort in the Middle East are meant to prevent sudden shocks. On the other, if sanctions fail to curb Russian exports, barrels could flood the market later and push prices back down. That would ease inflation for consumers in Asia and Europe but would also undercut U.S. efforts to punish Moscow.
The U.S. Treasury said the trade framework with China also aims to keep critical minerals — cobalt, graphite, rare earth elements — flowing to American factories that build electric vehicle batteries and advanced chips. That links climate transition and energy security directly to diplomacy. In plain terms, Washington is trying to force Russia to sell less oil while convincing China not to weaponize the clean-energy supply chain. The outcome will set the tone for winter fuel costs, battery investment, and even defense production.