New visiting-forces deal aims to expand joint drills and deter coercion

Canada and the Philippines are poised to sign a Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) that would let Canadian troops train on Philippine soil and carry arms during exercises. Manila says the pact will accelerate joint drills, improve interoperability, and widen intelligence sharing as China steps up risky maneuvers around Philippine-held features in the South China Sea. The agreement aligns with Manila’s recent push to diversify security partners beyond its U.S. treaty alliance, adding Canada alongside Australia, Japan and New Zealand. It also comes as Ottawa increases satellite data sharing to track illegal maritime activity and backs a rules-based order at sea. Philippine officials framed the pact as a practical step: bolster readiness, upgrade logistics, and harden coastal defenses after months of water-cannoning, ramming, and “dangerous intercepts” near Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal.

Strategic calculus and regional reactions

For Canada, the deal extends Indo-Pacific outreach from naval transits and sanctions enforcement into rotational presence and training. It could bring cyber, maritime domain awareness, and humanitarian assistance exercises into a firmer framework, with attention to visiting-forces legal protections. For Manila, layered partnerships complicate coercion by raising the costs of harassment and shrinking response times. Beijing is likely to protest, calling it “militarization,” while Southeast Asian neighbors will watch whether the pact reduces miscalculation risks or heightens friction. The move dovetails with U.S.–Philippines basing access under EDCA and parallel talks with European partners. The test will be execution: funding for upgraded ranges and ports, clarity on command arrangements, and consistent rules for coast guard coordination. If drills expand and information flows quicken, the pact could strengthen deterrence without changing Manila’s core aim—resupply and maintain its outposts under international law.