Chinese exports to the United States could shrink by a staggering $488 billion by 2027 if Washington and Beijing fail to secure a trade agreement before the current tariff pause expires on August 12. This projection comes from a new simulator by the Observatory of Economic Complexity, which models the impact of renewed US tariffs first imposed on April 2 under the second Trump administration.

Southeast Asia, Europe May Benefit from Trade Shift

Without a deal, key US imports such as electronics, toys, and apparel would face steep price hikes, while China would likely reroute its goods toward Southeast Asia, the EU, and Russia. Vietnam and India are projected to absorb up to $38–$40 billion each in redirected Chinese exports, while Russia could see an additional $33.1 billion in imports.

Talks Continue in Stockholm

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are currently holding their third round of negotiations in Stockholm, following earlier talks in Geneva and London. While both sides have acknowledged progress, the looming August deadline puts added pressure on finalizing terms. The outcome could reshape global trade routes—and consumer prices—in the years ahead.